One-PagerEternal Limited · NSE: ETERNAL2 March 2026

Ten Thousand Small Shops.

Eternal is priced as an internet platform. What you own is a retail property rollout whose profitability is a function of orders per store per day.

Rating · 12-month target

BUY
₹297

₹242.87 current · 22.3% implied upside

Blinkit's December-quarter print settled whether quick commerce works. The open question is what a mature dark-store cluster earns and how many India supports. We model 8,500 stores by FY35E at 6.4% of order value. At ₹242.87 the market implies 6.2% perpetual growth — below India's nominal GDP. That is the mispricing.

Point-in-time · data cut-off 2 March 2026

All figures are stated as at 2 March 2026 against a reference price of ₹242.87, with the quarter ended 31 December 2025 as the last reported period. Not marked to a later market.

₹242.87

Current price

₹297

12-month target

22.3% upside

1.5x

EV / FY27E order value

18,911 cr

FY26E net cash, post-lease

B2C net order value, ₹ croreFY25A → FY30E

FY25A

62,291

FY26E

96,766

FY27E

1,39,409

FY28E

1,88,619

FY29E

2,41,983

FY30E

2,96,567

Order value, not revenue — the like-for-like measure across a mixed 1P/3P model. Source: Company disclosures, Aditya Nair Research estimates.

CALL 01 · HIGH CONVICTION

Density is the scoreboard

NOV per store per day rises from ₹7.39 lakh to ₹9.80 lakh by FY30E. Throughput, not store count, drives the margin path.

CALL 02 · HIGH CONVICTION

Blinkit is the equity story

Quick commerce is 61.1% of FY30E sum-of-the-parts value. Food delivery is the annuity that funds it.

CALL 03 · HIGH CONVICTION

The balance sheet is the moat

₹18,911 crore net cash after leases at FY26E. In a subsidy war, funding capacity is the competitive weapon.

CALL 04 · CONTRARIAN

Priced for sub-GDP growth

Reverse DCF backs out 6.2% perpetuity against ~10.5% nominal GDP. Not a stock priced for perfection.

Forecast summary — **FY26E to FY30E**
Metric	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E	FY30E
B2C net order value (₹ cr)	96,766	1,39,409	1,88,619	2,41,983	2,96,567
Revenue from operations (₹ cr)	54,670	95,618	1,34,814	1,77,602	2,21,393
Adjusted EBITDA (₹ cr)	1,153	3,985	7,655	12,016	16,897
Margin on order value	1.2%	2.9%	4.1%	5.0%	5.7%
EPS (₹)	₹0.40	₹2.65	₹6.05	₹10.36	₹14.64
EV / net order value	2.2x	1.5x	1.1x	0.8x	0.6x

Source: Aditya Nair Research estimates. Full model, DCF and sum-of-the-parts in the accompanying initiating-coverage note.

Target price — **triangulated across three methods**
Method	Value per share	Weight
Discounted cash flow (FCFF, nine-year to FY35E)	₹251.42	30%
Sum-of-the-parts on FY30E segment metrics	₹336.07	50%
Relative valuation, three routes averaged	₹266.94	20%
Blended fair value → target	₹297	100%

The DCF and the sum-of-the-parts differ by 33.7%. Read ₹251 as the floor a cash-flow buyer would pay and ₹336 as what a strategic acquirer of the parts might. Scenario-weighted value: ₹267.82.

Bull — what has to be true

Throughput clears ₹10 lakh per store per day by FY30E.
Share consolidates to three players above 90% of category order value.
Blinkit margin reaches 5.1% on order value by FY30E.
No primary equity raise before FY29.

Bear — what breaks it

Subsidy war extends four to six years as Reliance, Flipkart and Amazon defend catchments.
Store additions outrun demand, dragging blended throughput down.
Terminal margin caps at 3.5%, not 6.4%.
Bear case: ₹125 per share, -48% from here.